Dr Alice Ekman - Asia-Pacific: The Priority of China’s Foreign Policy - ...

##########################################
Thank you very much for the very kind introduction and from what muscle for welcoming me and since it's my first time here not only the thing but the inductor and I'm very wanted to be able to share my views of of China's policy not so much in the entire world because it's such as an entire book in itself and we have limited time but I will be focusing on China's approach to the region has a port in china china's foreign for the image of pacific and most of the farm are focusing on the last few years and the sitting people because many questions have been raised about a potential change a frightfully sees the real change or not what does it mean what China how to analyze approaching the region is there some form of coherence 20g building up a concerning different zone of the region in central asia eastern asia southeastasia obviously the type of question that i would like to share with you to the in 20-25 minutes so why sorry about the many things slide i started i don't know about the rooms and things so if it's too small just let me know when I with all weekend pass also within PowerPoint will be online right so so no need to take too much you so why did I it started to focus on this question is first of all looking at the official an official communication sitting playing in central leadership over the last two years I've been I've been underlying that for them the region is a priority of the foreign policy is an official term it has been first underlining october2013 it was this very formal diplomatic work conference in china house regular diplomatic work conference major one not every year it's because of major gathering.
The last one was in 2068 was a general foreign policy means the generals was a diplomatic work confirms that was talking about the entire global situation and this last conference specifically focusing on the region and half of the house the other of the communicate what he should have been explained that the region is more important than ever for China's foreign policy we have been witnessing and multiplication of bilateral and multilateral meetings with neighboring countries interesting thing has been traveling all over the region except japan but all over the region and has received a significant number of top leaders from the region and thinking also in particular of Central Asian leaders but not only some sort of Southeast Asian leaders in recent news when you miss a while but this is not an argument to say that something is happening in the region of China's foreign policy no in the region is changing no but there is some at least for example vehicle so that other elements of the rhetoric there is a anytime to be inevitable always a now mentioning very frequent mentioning all over the world and especially when Chinese a researcher 52 think things are forming words are deciding on this new concept of maritime Silk Road and secretly couldn't make that we can discuss about it in modern coming slide it's not a new concept that now thing is saying that they're guiding axis of development for China's footage in the region and we have to take them seriously we have to analyze but that's that's official communities under shipping so in general term we are witnessing interesting thing and not necessarily you turn to the complete change of strategy blacklists an acceleration of the reason of visits meetings of your communication on China's foreign places the region and a slight change of style in in this approach existing concepts existing motivations I just said that I don't think there is major complete its complete ban significant change in China's frontpoint's is a region because the motivations the drivers the factors explain this original friend courtesy of seal the same as under reaching tall first of all of course is the opening up of inland provinces putting that not managed to reduce the imbalance in terms of economic development using the Chinese territories western and central provinces as I still strongly underdeveloped compared to eastern provinces so it's urgent under the current leadership to try to develop this preferences and one of one way to develop their is to reinforce the International exporter and it's believed that through cross-border and exchanges investment original investment and development and fractures of the region that might be a way to open up these provinces which who cannot be open through maritime exposure such as the one who changes chunks it's wrong which were authorities identified exhale thing in the beginning of the year of reform and opening-up v8 the late seventies and beginning of the eighties so in this context the central government have been in indentifying several provinces and trying to I don't to put the naughty develop them I bridge for specific investment and trade with this figure it out there just an example for the poisoning shop which we don't talk a lot about neshannock shop for instance northern western part of China ions and is the phone we come three population so central government when you could tell us to not prime minister identified this region as a bridge to the Arab ER because it considered that possible connection language connection but religious connection configuration might help in developing economic exchanges I've been there so father is not happening but it's interesting to see how was general methodology was general project central government through this provinces and you go to union which has been identified on the hood internship as a bridge to the southeast asian provinces so because of the graphical location so every pregnancy's who are asked to consider this pool or remote or underdeveloped contingency competitors is an instant side are kind of push to baa2 toward regional integration and that's the general idea behind this secret project secret project is basically the core support project is infrastructure development and it's hard to see really the consequences so far this and this concept because afternoon we have to be new concept but leadership coalition was trying to now development the development investment project in Central Asia are in Southeast Asia I was chinese companies major Chinese companies contributing to the construction of ports right ways higher is World Airport in many countries of the region and one more term it seems that the current leadership is very ambitious in terms of training restaurant in the region the kind of shape is talking about reinforcing the right investment between Chinese neighbor and what's more specifically there is not an official name of China Zach trades to reach 1 trillion u.s. dollar by 2020 and comparison reserved four hundred billion dollars in 2012 existing concept anything motivations i just talked about the different infrastructures in the region this is so far and the main concrete and implication that we can witness when we talk about this concept of the original policy and recent visits sitting things into neighborhoods significant infrastructure contracts have been signed including with a country with travel and vigorous for relations with China challenge shaping both for india and china is pushing and has pushed and not successfully successfully managed to create a asian infrastructure investment bank where this Bank of China would HIGHLY contribute to the budget is bringing his bank is is supposed to to to generate interest or project of infrastructure development and to found countries such as cambodia laos who are not themselves able to to finance such project we are not sure I see once again so too early to assess the outcome of this bank and we're not sure because we also have also Development Bank such as a GB which is already well established and not sure that this bank can compete with a gb and also some countries have not been attending the launching ceremony of this Bank some asian countries something about korea i'm also singing about Australia Indonesia and all of the countries and of course japan and in a few so but this are just to underline this project to to underline China's focus and emphasis on infrastructure development in the region and we also have to read this development in line of need to open up the underdeveloped provinces of the western and central part of the country initial motivations behind china's approach world its neighborhood the first one of course is the energy security which is can you top of the key first his visit to the four central asian countries in September 2013 major investment projects have been conducting in Kazakhstan and the field of energy among other countries and there is still this ongoing strategies of strategy of diversification of supplied in in the region as far as any.
Too rich countries are concerned another additional motivation i'm missing them but of course there is not exhaustive right we could have talked about it for integrity of this fascinating topic we're not talking another motivation of 10 Angela foreign forces the region is a counterterrorism we have to remember that China I mean that seems china has several and Muslims only ethnic tensions but rise of radical extremism instant young and we seized concerned about the situation since young and he's trying to develop ties with the country's neighboring since young and then we can external king soundtrack system to try both to open up economically disturbance and to bring frost potential security cooperation at and within the region of course this and this is and in the process and why don't myself as a special feature views of the nature of security cooperation but that is a Chinese concerned security of the original minutes basically pleaser ties and the networks that may exist between since young and other countries of the region broader security objective of China when we talk about just talked about security and we also have to remember the Chinese concerned about the situation in Afghanistan especially postnatal Afghanistan what would be the situation and how to stabilize as tensions in this context so situation in Afghanistan also situation in Pakistan's a broader region as was originally to some of region is a clear priority for China because the region necessary and concentrates a series of security energy and economic interest for China that are a card to both economic development and security concerns at the same time we have to underline the fact that are just as observers we have to remember that we are witnessing both soft and hard move of China's foreign police in the original I just previously going to talk about a secret project we met actually something it can be depressed project we talked about in formula for cross-border investment reinforcement of infrastructure Tsar enforcement of cooperation between countries but if we look at the onset of the region in the east and south china seas we have been lasting and he thought that moves with every Japan and forgetting to eat or disputes and China were tries and even considering that the topic starting point was Japan's purchase of part of the jobs enquirer in in the late 2012 Japan said that this purchase was actually on the contrary to countdown tension raised by the national news media of took you wanted to purchase the island in a more assertive and offensive aim and also to be marking on the island this is a matter of debate and I won't enter into this debate but what we have seen we have seen more initiative from the side of China in this waters first one that I can least oil so once again the list is not exhaustive is the ADIZ so its air defense identification zone above the job think acquire and then in in November 2013 it's this in itself is not i mean is not something and common but is the description because your justification is often unit or but the context of the Declaration and the timing because it was already very tense situation was very tense regarding this island and considering the lorry patch was going into your water's the timing of the correction was considered as a provocation by a part of China's neighbors will response from Japan US and other countries of the region china also defended equivalent of energy is a ti-84 fish in a general 14 the waters of South China Sea requiring basically at foreign fishing vessels and applying them to seek permission this is a very brief summary of the situation and rough is only as you probably all have noticed that China's decided to 22 satin or week in a contested area of South China Sea in May turns 40 it was a 114 wanted this district was guarded by a Chinese vessels and night a product reaction in from Vietnam because when considering that this is within its territory or waters and efficiencies within a disputed waters so always initiatives if you could say or hardened whatever you call it all this in all this and actions are appearing in sharp contrast with so-called a low profile foreign policy that has been developed and the day shopping for go along way that has been the tradition of the core transferring policy because benefiting shopping was considering that innate seventies and eighties china was so poor that has no meaning has no time to focus on front parties issues so we leave state to score we don't care so much about territorial dispute and refocus many of the Mississippi coming development doesn't mean that we don't care about this dispute is just that we will resolve them later and wait for next generation with China will have the means and the time to address these issues a personal exercise video is less China's nuclear strategy in the region because how to reduce the move basically other cord acquires with a broader particular region i would say at the moment no we can list of all abilities including first one big booty is the relation between this soft economy promotion house moves and territorial what internal dispute what is a relation between there is there is any and in terms of communication as well we'll see that this virus type of moves of initiatives and lead neighbors to raise questions about the emission of China region and also if additional way to the Chinese read this is that have been supported by Japan for instance the second ambiguity is rated as the concrete implementation of the new secret project for sure our infrastructure development is a concrete and serious implementation of this project we should not underestimate them we're talking about major contracts repudiate implementation started the construction of this project for some of them but apart from especially development.
What are the guidelines for as a new secret project it's unclear for china china night serve within sinking resists recent are you thinking now on the ways to best ways to implement is considered have been underlining and will be emphasized by the center for leadership so what can we just mean chinese thai itself is thinking about it how to how to put this in practice in the best and most efficient ways a short and medium-term it's also unclear for China's neighbor and neighbors what directly identified as part of this new project at least who are considering that the water and identified as a country where the road will pass through them don't know themselves what that mean I some fun I was extended with researcher and senior researcher and kids down there are some of countries are already friendly with China's 10 x potential good economic opportunity and we're coming is a general concept but sometimes they ask times tell us what does it mean for us what project will implement and how fast you would do that.
Some neighbors are welcoming China's China secret project some others are not so much welcoming it and I'm thinking for instance about Russia we often talk about this like really good times in China Russia and mentions the recent guest has been signed but actually when the secret project was first mentioned by the top leadership in China Russia did not recognize its only one year after actually during the german community on the gassy actually that pressure on agreed to recognize the existence of such projects in black-and-white on paper but still Russia is considering for instance that china's new project what central asian might interfere Israel influence in the region and that is not so welcome another question regarding the sequel then we're going to position ambiguities and wraps around with project is when how to secure the road we talk about security issue talk about tourism if this roads become valuable they might become target target i'm not just talking about a terrorist target and talking about mascia master criminal network that I didn't know that might be hard for trying and neighbor to secure this economic network that was suppose to pass i remember with from from try not to to Europe and as general so motivation for developing the secret that reason the center of the terminal disease the inner part of the super nothing Mary time one is to sow and transport the goods and to financial analyst transportation routes from good chinese goods from China to Europe by train so faster reducing significant is the cause of trans research time of constituents rotation of the cost but this might work effectively if there is security surrounding this transportation and land another and being with you and i would like to mention resume when we think about China's foreign policy in the region is what is a weight of effect or historical moment resentment on foreign policy decision-making process and they're sitting.
And i'm specifically asking unless thing of course is a weight of effective and our historical reason is varying according to each issue at stake and certainly higher on some flashpoint such as a think then on another other issues at the same time so we have to know the big zero weight of historical reasons and an effect on front for this decision making process because magnetism feel very widespread season guiding approach to China's foreign policy decision-making process we worry Chyna me do you have an ideological framework but pragmatic decision making process going to account economic interests first snowfall and and country situation on the ground but sometimes we see that it's nothing but another ship in leadership is what degree objects and services general belief that under previous decades or even Dynasty China was occupying an international original states that was not in line with his long history all culture so you have frequent official and unofficial references to the hundreds of humiliation to the opium war except for understanding things thinking has been opening new museum are regarding a second world war regarding attention with Japan and 19 Massacre has been opening new memorials and we have is not my Japanese is hoping to turn the page of history and building you defense in the foreign policy strategy region that is not a direct legacy of the Second World War china is opening back the book and want to analyze in more detail into focusing in more extended editions communication with what it is right to do and sitting thing is has been often mentioning the following expression the dread revival of the Chinese nation is still unclear what it means in comfort for in pc term but there is a general belief in China that it's not time to occupy as original status that China should occupy considering its long history culture so it's more culturist proprietary segmentation to this development but i would like to underline and something that we in discussing formerly an hour just previous discussion before arriving in years is that the dang of describe your between your son is a long-term deadline is set more than 750 for the century of the of the PRC so it might also be broad concept also to appeal to a general public to kind of build some form of unity behind the current leadership and reinforce our command contract balance the origin of the CCPD messy but incomplete them that might not have so much shorter middleton implication steer are the great revivals of knew it was a sign on a whole but it is becoming an official a man the sitting fee which is considering that China has means economic means financial means to support that revival it's still to put in line with their shopping a friend producing thanks for being among the missing might have it might have been a willingness to revive a Chinese nation but on Frank Quilici level china has no not did not have the financial means to do that not as a reason clear rising confidence on the side of China following with some mates a lookbook global financial and economic downturn Tyler arrested relatively well to the crisis.
Thanks to the as a stimulus package has been a lunch at a.
A fast pace and ownership is considering that now we are and entering a favorable context with the development of new economic balance of power in the region and also China's comes functions that the richest original style is under structuring so as things are moving it is not time maybe to take more initiative because if you don't take initiative in this favorable complex and when when will you like promote national interests when will you advance original stages of China from an economic view at least our economic side but also our monitor on time of influence from 4000 influence so there is also there is obviously and the sitting thing is a belief that is now the appropriate time for China consolidate its original power status we're talking about integrity is before and the question we can raise as researchers analysis of China is all these abilities intentional or unintentional and i would also that they are both that was intentional or unintentional intentional first well yeah just have to remember and find question the mouth dont even later first partial belief in the opacity that capacity is itself so did you guess it's not really good 2222 disclose information about what you want to do this is not speech and I wasn't even sometime good to discuss the basic information about but the mechanism of the front party sedition making process about who is aiding which office and hard at work this this is a general belief in China from several decades and it still waiting on on the on the part of china so when we say what China is not expanding clearly what it wants to do well it has never really done so both that's a friend proceed or not and institutional level either although and the car dealership that we intend to to give up some form of transparency on some issues or song decision-making mechanism some some interest from mechanism there is also seems and this is for their sins because we asked us to quite early to analyze this front post-development it seems that there is a general belief which I under the current give diplomacy and furniture or loose can be connected concurrently or even some extent independently what I mean is that severe that the letters so that the turtle moves the holotype they're loose will not impact the former meaning economic diplomacy given the size of chinese friend Eric investment and the general attractiveness of the Chinese Martin china will still be able to sign contract killer given in this situation and-and-and-and-and considering that China would like to reinforce it can be precise in the region at the same time abilities are also not intentional an intentional for one reason we have to remember on that the remains strong additional obstacles to strategic planning and executing a number of institutions taking part in the frame for decision-making process over the last 20 years I've been increasing at a very sharp base fast pace you have a economy korean teen institution that are very powerful and the NDRC but I was something about major soe state-owned enterprises who are contributing suffering through with some extent to the shaping of China's foreign policy and you have also institutions such as for mr. framers in China who are some issues which and i can see that basically them the small buttons and more closer to our interest issue is the higher as a decision making process is logically but on some issues the party is CPS is certainly more influential than other institution and varies in this context an issue of coordination of a conditioning process hard to coordinate the different situation who are taking party needs so sitting thing is calling for coordination of diplomatic work and also talking about top level design so it's having a strategy view long-term one and not only responding to moving the region and normally being passive and basically establishing a foreign policía de day by day which may not have a broader comprehension of the Georgian George context and i'm mentioning this because we talk about ambiguities and because are partly originating also from the institutional framework in China and forms through overlap and issues of coordination and there is also another issue regarding China's foreign policy if we can say is the under assessment of communication and strategic impact of the heart move that were previously mentioned in the east and south china sea receivers only our researchers friends we can see from a Chinese think and and i'm quoting her not unanimously but I could put many others who share the same comment she was saying China needs to use international communication standards to explain its foreign policy better so far we have faith we are not used to these standards and there is a communication issue here and also an issue of perception gaps because we could say that the moves in the east and south china sea was called the product of a scene from beating at this in turn off and national interest and national interest contributed to enforce the fear with neighbors and somewhere even more favorable to reinforce that ties with the US so try sending this message shows there's something bigger tease surrounding its Frank policing the region just mentioning country protective effect of some of this move but we will also talk about our productive effect of this moves are let's say of these ambiguities that is surrounding tennis foreign policy we could say we could argue these are just a point of analysis to to support and to give some food for the debates we could say that the remaining flexible or that TV in a region that is itself and during our respect restructuring can be a strategic advantage to position itself or to size opportunities faster than rival just a footnote but the secret project actually is the initial idea of course there is historical legacy but usually was coming from Hillary Clinton who gave a speech in 7-eleven Afghanistan saying that to kind of stabilize the region would be good to enforce ties and economic integration within the region and talk about secret and then change it all why not is good idea and maybe we are marketed to do that considering historical background and we can do that maybe faster way so let's do it and there's a declaration of hitting on arrival and then the rest implementation of it now.
So you see how half transferring policies trying to register according to move from Maine original my key players that's also matter flexibility and sizing opportunities and other part is domestically as well not only trailer is trying to reshape its tranquil situation that also also a key regional players such as Japan and then the US could talk about us people to reminding to Asia but it.
For Japan's new friend Polly security guidelines and the current IB leadership we could also argue that's remaining and vigorous made this term strategic planning of neighbors and thinking for instance of the division of the CIA seeds over as a good young there was after after this declaration november from certain there was a series of rumors and discussion among original players and beyond on potential duration of similar Zone in the soft Tennessee above the South China Sea and H country was trying to see how they could react adapt to this movie if this move effectively up and actually did not to place but just to give you an example of how disability may disturb the strategic planning shaping of neighbors so even if China's foreign policy in the region remaining vigorous and even if and now doing a risky exercise which is to analyze development that are really new and we probably need to take time to to continue to analyze it with more distance but even in this context we have even with disabilities we have what one should 11 a development that we can be sure is a reinforced china-us regional competition.
China is there trying to establish a new original of power balance of power with the u.s. sitting has been talking about new type of great power relationship in this regional balance of power is being try always been developed at several level first before security strategy competition.
China is trying to develop and to answer a symmetry catch up with the US and knows that it's clearly laid behind them off military capabilities but maybe there is smarter way to coordinate disabilities in order to face US prisons originally traveling case as it would be a situation and also sitting thing as been emphasizing on need to develop a strong Navy in particular and he has been talking about the Navy that should be able to fight and win war this was this discovery has been made in during the visit of meet everybody at the beginning of it monday so so maybe it's also to reinforce the loyalty of the period the CCP so it has the domestic target this communication at the meeting I get and not only maybe not only reflecting new friend polisci orientation it's important to mention them i believe another reinforce china-us regional competition at another level which is trade level there is of course the dichotomy tpr except that i won't go too much into detail because another chapter was tiny little surprising to be on this mega here's to a nice trying to negotiate if here is a maximum of country in the world and especially in the region with the focus on East and Southeast Asian countries another competition that has been reinforced and the sitting thing with us is that a morning Terry level china is hoping to expand the scale of the use of the German be into surrounding areas and hoping that the influence of the human beings a general monetary system become higher so we could talk about into the intent of intent to internationalize and windy but also to realize its first of four with the number of cross-border trade settlement engineering has been signed and also a number of bilateral currency swap agreements signed with neighboring countries i just mentioned fuse on these slides are since 2008 but the list is not exhaustive once again original completion between china and the u.s. also is also noticeable at the institutional level.
China is trying to enforce its party shirt passivation existing resort institutional framework just a temp mystery object that will happen very soon.
But also china is hoping to create we're trying to create or even refresh into the shadows in which it could play a leading role.
I'm fighting for thinking about the conference on interaction and confidence-building measure in Asia chica CI ça whatever you call it but China has been focusing on exercising on it sad that it's heading it for two years it has been a hosting it and now as i was twenty plus participant but not the us-japan and and it's the official line from a Chinese perspectives to converting or in a reference institution for original security cooperation that might be too optimistic given that the reason the not our keeper don't they are taking part and also given that you also have an institution and in place in the region this field but I mentioning it because a speech of given basting in Japan was also enlightening regarding competition with us when sinus be shedding talk about and rely on the fact that plus including dream up to asian countries to solve their own problems and was trying to forge a combination community of common destiny and then and the meaning the u.s. is not welcoming this in this community building because it has no legitimacy.
According to beijing to take part in this new vision command even community of common destiny this is quite a new record rhetorical development at this has been more information on the city question we could ask is are we heading to other competition or frontal rivalry between the US and China the answer is that the woman we don't know the reservation is not stabilized and there is a debate within China China's foreign policy community buzzer as is orientation of this of this relation some and.
Including influential researchers saying that while we should not engage in a too confrontational relation with us considering strong economy making the dependency in considering that also we may need us to cooperate on a set of security issue including Afghanistan also including on the development of terrorism in the broader global context so you have diverging views among China policy makers and that is regarding the nature of china-us relations and we should not be almost simplistic and say that china is heading to all the confrontational relation with us I believe some concluding remarks 22 to support the Q&A session and we are clearly witnessing a modification of initiatives and moves in the region on China's foreign policy is becoming more proactive in the entire asia-pacific region from Central Asia to the China Seas and it's like we can see initiative will continue to be nervous and in the short and medium term we will likely as well as we witness to the continuity of soft and hard moves in power currently there is because there is no political wheel but also there is no institutional ability to coordinate a homogeneous original policy under the current leadership original proceed under construction.
We are a diversity of interests and flash boring to mention region sometimes they were china doesn't have a current friend portage in the region well yes it's too ambiguous about the same time we have to consider the diversity of the flash points that it is facing addressing the quarantine shoe require different approaches and dressing as the east china sea turtle rescue disasters or dispute or the bodysuits for example between China all these are very different set of issues that Bobby that would be hardwood rest with a common flyer and strategic framework and.
In general term we have to remember that left members of strong energy graphical hierarchy of frying policy priorities from engaging perspective see it'sit's following and geographical logic china has a lot on her plate and domestic level we talked about social tension ethnic tension economic imbalance the skate of the National territories and coordination between central government and local government has issues if we just focus on security issues we have some security issue in Sinjon but not only with increasing the number of attacks beyond think young and concerning for the police in the United problem so even a beating so yeah a lot of play domestically it tests lot of a plate or so we recently we think about a phone call issue and to some extend my wife is issued different and it's not so much a flash point today but your direction are coming up a local election and then 16 presidential election so if there is a change of party people max power that might be a flashpoint asking from Beijing but general term.
China has a lot to do in the region and we just listed some freshman the current place flowers China Sea such China Sea territorial the border dispute so in this context china is hoping to build leadership role first of all at regional labor individual level we often try to analyze our China's position regarding Syria or Ukraine is working very closely these issues but I wouldn't say that establishing it's a it's a establishing global power cities is a top priority for China in terms of security of foreign policy initiatives i would say that first of all you want to consider consolidate its a parrot regional level and it wants to focus because he has to protect increasing number of investment.
And also citizens abroad so it is taking more seriously international issues that is happening beyond the region and it is participating to untie para sequencing center operation in Somalia it's-- sending the UN peacekeeping and soldiers and several region of the world but at the same time we cannot say for so that's China has a very position has been very proactive in Syria or we can even if it was about to be when we can say that china is also a top leading actor regarding Ukraine is trying to position himself to some extent in ambiguous way keep trying to remain good relations with Russia is you and and and US and Germany my window too much glitter but I I'm feel like I'm just because i want to say that there is still very strong track record hierarchy of priorities of China's foreign policy and the focus is many on the region so when we talked about reinforce competition between China and the US and i'll be doing this first divide the region that should take place and that it does not mean to do it slow at a broader international level so far so I was going on this and and the sort of keeping a time for the Cure attention but there is seriously a strong willingness as serious and after restoring as from apologize to come to us influence the region but the original policy remains invigorating and and so wats vulnerable and maybe one Lester comments is that if we understand that this analysis only after two years of full power sitting I would be happy to continue to exchange was you i would continue to focus on this topic much later in the year and Sebring is in india in English.
In the coming years and hitting thing is an disposition till 2022 so that maybe the time friend that we have to follow important to analyze more close the frank with you when the region to see there is some form of current strategy building up in the coming decades thank you very much.


##########################################