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Welcome to Korea and the world a .
Podcast on political economic and social issues from the perspective of the Korean Peninsula it's been four years since kim chong-in came to power in north korea after the death of his father in 2011 to assess how the comparatively young and inexperienced leader has been doing so far we had the pleasure of meeting with on Thailand off the guest of our first episode we spoke about Kim Germans approach to the north korean economy the country's relationship with China the impact and value of the international community's sanctions and whether North Korea has become more stable ever since it is in the hands of kim jong-in and I'll and cough is professor of Korean Studies at goodman University he received his undergraduate and graduate degrees from then include state university and has also attended Pyongyang's came in song University he has published books in English and Russian and contributes to various news outlets including The Korea Times and al-jazeera professor and rail and cuff welcome back to Korean the world a hello thank you for inviting me it has been almost four years since kim jong earn came to power in early $MONTH 2012 at the time you wrote an academic article that said and I quote in the short run one should not expect any significant change in peoria do you think your prediction has held true so far no it was not because back then it did look plausible that Kim didn't vote for a vile continue his father's policy these little olive oil changes.
Indeed he was young and experienced and surrounded by his father's old god.
However i under estimated his decisiveness of that toughness of his character it does not necessarily mean that these are good features but these features definitely exist therefore changes which i expected as far as i remember in that article i predicted the chain.
Jeez will start roughly 45 years time.
This changes began much earlier pretty much immediately after his ascension to power in 2012 so not scary and now is not dramatically different from what it used to be but it's more different then i would expect for years ago so whatever the past for your starters about Kim jong-il's leadership style first of all like his father he's a micromanager somebody who is probably willing to deal with details maybe less so than his father but steel but what is important he is impulsive decides if brutal smart person he definitely lacks experience and some of his actions look a razor difficult to explain nonetheless so far i would estimate his policies well what is the most important just begun to do what his father should be doing since the late 1990s he began to gradually dismantle their anachronistic and commentary inefficient system of the state-run agriculture we have a system of family responsibilities quite similar to a channel used to have in the late nineteen seventies a little bit less radical now North Korean farmers walk for a share of highest roughly one suit over the harvest is this and as it is all they work much better people did not probably notice but the last three years have been marked by good or very good harvests and the all these is a new system of incentives much had working farms second he essentially decided to take a position of should we say benevelon neglect any got to the private economic activity which is quite advanced in North scary.
His father was less certain the river . and his father compassionate man are private economy force generated very short periods when it was encouraged and the river . when the government deed what it could to get rid of the private economy German is different his position is simple officially he does not admit that such economy exist in real life he has instructed his officials not to pay any attention to its existence and basically love their North Korean businesses continue to say business-as-usual to make money to invest this money is a great deal of freedom say for their construction business now we see a boom in housing in construction of their private houses apartment buildings in North Korea not only incoming on across the country and most of these buildings are built by private interpreters for sale essentially it's a market advantage it's a capitalist enterprise and according to rumors babies by many people in different situations and generally quite plausible kim jongmin instructed not to ask questions about the origin of the money as long as somebody has money and is very intense there's this money into a particular housing project well this person is welcome and nobody asks how did he manage to get quarter million and a half million years doors and we're talking good money seriously lunch money because the most expensive apartments and pinion probably would cost you about 200,000 years dogs as exceptional is very high price the average apartment will be probably seventy eighty thousand still not cheap.
What does Kim jong-un actually get out of that benevolent negligence economic girls gets an Australian economy has improved living standards have increased significantly sometimes you can see claims that the improvement of the living standards have happened only in Kenya.
No I just actually as a matter of fact came from North Korea from a countryside from a large country side now and it was quite clear the situation's their improved significantly compared to what it used to be so few years ago people are better dressed a bit of traffic on the street some new buildings including large buildings and a great deal of construction going on and the general sense is of improvement and i'm talking about the countryside the same things in Pyongyang well you see it everywhere so he got economic growth.
He probably understands that there is only way to make economy growing that is to introduce a bit of market a bit of capitalism is the only game in town.
I don't think he feels much upset about like all his generation he is probably quite more ideological and definitely not serious about this official communities the Marxist regime blah blah blah.
He's paid propagandists are producing an unbelievable quantities on daily basis her he doesn't take it seriously like all people around him so he understands that if he is kind of permissive in dealing with the markets he's likely to have economic growth and he sincerely wants his people to live better and he also understands that if they live better they are likely to be more well supportive of his government so is his own vested interest and his kind of a Christie concerns everything for him into the direction of more permissive more liberal attitude to the economic girls when we spoke to you over a year ago you mentioned that the government had started the process of having its state industries transformed into private companies is that still happening.
Oh yes of course even though i would probably change warning i would say that the government tend to turn blind eye when some of the technical state-owned enterprises are taking over by the private intrapreneurs it keeps happening.
And the more money the more capital we have inside North Korea them more likely this is to happen because people who now have you know operational capital in the tune of sake water medium is dollars they are looking for in some kind of industrial investment they're looking for ways to essentially by some kind of workshop some small factory and start producing stuff for sale here for expert to China offers a domestic sale and this is increasingly common the program is that usually unless you are an insider you can not easily distinguish between a real authentic state-owned enterprise and the private enterprise because on paper all enterprises I still state old but in practice many of smaller enterprises especially producing products which I in high demand are really private investment private corporations in the early nineties their frequent reports that workers will just stay in factories empty factories doing no work is that still the case today.
Yes about much less so it's another change which happened under Kim children are not sure what it was a kind of the government decision or just governments and feelin's to enforce earlier regulations I don't know but what is clear is the government now in the last say 23 years is much less in client to demand that walk us would come and spend at least two hours every day at factories which are not a curation of any more of this kind of attendance demands have sort of disappeared focused still expected to show up occasionally maybe a couple of times a week about nobody expects them to spend their entire vulgarities half of their ok it's an assumption that focus would basically search for paid war elsewhere at the same time as the factories.
Where people produce something which is in demand which can be sold and which is so in such places the celery's are much higher than it has ever been the case if you are talking about such factories like say it's like mining.
Its food processing it's cosmetics general consumption goods but like remaining of course and sometimes as a matter of fact steel production to I because they sell still to China and there is some domestic demand small but growing for still because of the special revival of the economy so in this place is if you are a young inexperienced Walker you probably would be paid about say 100,000 150,000 most Korean 1i which is roughly equivalent to 15 to 20 US dollars a month doesn't sound large indeed but the official celery is fifty cents and there is a big difference between fifty cents and fifteen dollars and they are talking about unskilled inexperienced labor celery go up significantly and skilled of walker can make maybe up to half million North Korean War which is well roughly 60 years goes and if you have sort of rescues like a good minor or a good steelworker you can make even more so if Walker who does regular job who goes to a state old factory or factory which is privately all but some of these guys to state on such a person can sometimes make up to 100 years to this amount switches which is good and this is a new situation and each actually emerged under Kim German it's another change because this enterprises and now paying real money very small by the standards of the outside world but sufficient for physical survival in the conditions of the scary how order to reconcile when they come into conflict for example if an employee of a state-owned company ends up being the owner of a small industry would the people higher-ranked compared to him into state organization take a tax on him or take.
You bribe to let him continue or would they be even employed by him.
How does it work first of all of course it can be easily employed by him but in this case you cannot distinguish where is real employment or bribing them because you can deploy them and pay them and necessary high wages but usually as a rule if somebody walks in the private industry.
It doesn't matter as a hero season in the premier or just the Kabul Walker it's usually expected that such a person would make donation to the factory to each he or she officially belongs.
It's called the third of all most money and the size of the nation varieties greatly depending on your salary on your position the type of your business.
I would like to emphasize that we are not talking about bribes this is the nation's perfectly completely illegal and it's not that they go to the pockets of the official they go to the budget budget of this particular factory.
However as they have set until recently and two years ago it was a bit difficult to buy such a freedom to be engaged is a private market because the government wanted every Walker to attend his or your workplace even if there was virtually nothing to do there because nothing for separation it's not the case anymore and hence my understanding is that in recent years it has become possible to do some work in the private economy without paying this sort of focus contribution money but I'm not so sure about it maybe in most cases used to have to pay in some cases you didn't definitely have to pay even now especially if you are running a large business but officially adjust you scramble high school teacher.
Well your high school will expect to be rewarded for this while we see this creeping marketization at the bottom level at the state level North Korea's more isolated than ever how much of the regime's isolationist an anti-capitalist rhetoric is genuine and how much of it is hypocracy despite sanctions North Korea still seems to import billions worth of luxury goods every year well discretion there are many points I would like to be more specific about probably it's divided into three questions just is about North Korea salvation second about how sincere their circles are and third about billions of dollars of their will actually go to change register from isolation frankly i'm afraid the remarks that North Korea is more isolated than our is a Christian and resin is leading because most am now in 2016 is less isolated and then pretty much at any point of the last 20 years actually china after a few years of very frosty almost fabrications as a genius leadership finally changed their mind and now begin to support North Korea on some scale its remains to be seen how much and enduring as the changes support will be nonetheless chan is back in the game and even the recent nuclear test did not change much second to Russia wish for a few years for many years actually for 20 years used to ignore North Korea is trying to engage to a rational agent is largely symbolical their statements about coming large-scale investment and projects have to be taking this is a very large dose of pieces.
Nonetheless politically Russia is a remarkably close to north korea closer that at any point over the last 25 years so I don't see that Korea is isolated frankly it's isolated indeed but less saw then say ten years ago then our equation rather it's anti-capitalist rhetoric and as a delicious with eric is sincere when they're talking about is relation ability of the SCM as a matter of fact kim jongmin seems to understand the threat his father used to not to worry too much about i'm talking about the threat of their forum in information about the knowledge of the outside world which is gradually spreading in Australia largely thanks to their dvds also sends to the legal and illegal travel to chain North Koreans now a much more aware about the outside world then say 15 all let alone 30 years ago late generally did not care about it but captain does what he can cannot do much but he's trying hard to reuse the direction between no scary and common people and the outside world they dramatically increased security on the border and as a result the number of their refugees who are coming to share from North Korea decrease significantly the same is true in regard to their North Koreans who arrived to the south as a signing secret circle ty butcher their numbers are roughly half of what it used to be few years ago half there are many reasons one of the citizens of course improvement of the economic situation but the major is a is much tougher attitude to the border protection so isolation is vital because Kim's woman understands only as long as he is capable of keeping his country isolated as long as he is capable of keeping his people more or less ignorant about the outside world he has chances to stay in power because in a divided country the spread of information about the outside world especially south korea is deeply disability talking about anti-capitalist traffic in does exist but it's not very common if you eat exactly what is written in the North Korean media nowadays there are attacks on capitalism but essentially the official ideology emphasizes not anti-capitalist nature of the government its mention but not too frequently but its national pure nasional speed so the message is not authentic everything is the message is better Chism we are the world's best nation and talking about South scary as they have been basically.
You corrupted by the Westerners they are not exactly pure carry ins and carry as a great and very pure Koreans something like that capitalism to mention but not too much then they make about consumption goods first of all i'm very skeptical when you said billions of dollars a bit difficult because of the entire North Korea trade easy around 10 billion US dollars and we are looking to trade war you and I can assure you that most of their items which are imported by the North Koreans is not hennessy cognac they largely input oil food some companies for the military program and only then will actually good so probably are talking of course not billions well few 10-meter maybe a few hundred million hardly more.
Having said that yesterday importing it and they will do it but they would not pay much attention to eat but I simply don't understand why people are talking about that much well I sort of understand this is a logic but it's simply a kind of logic which is not applicable to North Korea there is a common assumption of the dictator in order to keep his position sometimes you're but usually it's amazing job so let's say he dictator has to essentially bribe people around you by providing they're all kind of Giveaways manual luxury goods everything so the logic is that kim jongmin is importing of this you know hennessy cognac can be them.
MW cars to give it to high officials officials will love otherwise they will not love him they might consider a conspiracy i have to say well finally logic cannot agree completely cannot early because such logic would walk in a country which does not face this threat to its existence i can imagine that somewhere in sale in America of the nineteen seventies such logic would walk and if the top elite is not getting enough from magic data they probably would consider replacing the person is somebody else but it's not the case in North Korea even if the top moscone leaders are not getting their generations of hennessy cognac they're not going to start a conspiracy and if they do it will not because of heavy sekonic shortages because they understand if they start fighting between themselves as a risk to trigger a messages integration of the state the assumption is that in order not to be hang separately they have to hang together and they know it.
So the absence of their luxury goods is their homes.
It's not a big deal not a big deal but once again you are right years they do buy luxury goods larger China and they move it across the border but if it becomes impossible it will not have any significant political impact able to see you just mentioned some of the imports that North Korea has but isn't it under sanctions well medical equipment is definitely under Sections oil is definitely not food is definitely not a luxury items in depends on your definition in some cases there are in some cases and so is it a fair assessment to say that sanctions have this for not worked against North Korea yes it is and they believe it to be a good news the sanctions don't walk partially because they're rather modest partially because China is not been to be an active participant and since China controls say three quarters of North Korea's foreign trade its reluctance to participate is vital.
Having said that however there are other reasons.
Let's mention that by some miracle it's completely impossible.
Shana decides to join the sanctions if China makes a decision sanctions might be deadly efficient if so what will happen in most countries which is subjected to the.
International Central's sanctions don't work direct the immediate result is the deterioration of the living conditions for a majority of the population once it happens people become a happy and be good to press the government demanding to change the policy which created this economic troubles if we are talking about a democracy and let's not forget that many countries which have been subjected to the international sanctions we are sort of democratic at least regular elections so we are talking about democracy if you vote against the government either talking about a secretary in the room they might start a revolution but in North Korea it's not the case.
Essentials happen they can enemy will go really belly-up even a massive starvation as possible people stuff to this but they're not going to vote came family out of the government because as you know the dawn wall or reservoir old is predictable one hundred percent approval rate 100.0% the prorated every single person wars for the government candidate revolution.
Well maybe possible but not before many people maybe quarter million maybe half million staff to this and even then I would not bet on an Australian evolution possible but not very likely.
So the question is are sanctions good idea if the efficient they will kill a lot of people and maybe just maybe eventually bring a religion down if they are not efficient this people I life it's not a difficult to change of course sanctions are not a good idea and I'm sort of happy that due to the changes sabotage sanctions are not going to take off recently is commonly heard that the relationship between China and North Korea is worsening mainly because of north korea's successive nuclear attempts.
Do you agree with that assessment i completely disagree this assessment.
It's an outdated you i just came from China regenerate talk to a lot of knowledgeable people basically what happened looks like that at certain point in august-september as the changes decided to dramatically change their masculine policy indeed from say 2012 and especially to sell the 13 and then till late last year relations between law stating sharing are very tense frosty but then things took a sudden term the reasons are easy to learn is it received when you talk to the Chinese for China the single most important factor in the decision making is the United States is that growing rivalry with the United States the problem in this sauza Cheney's see which changes tend to see as American provocations haven't said that their energy to ask a change the game essentially I would say that the changes attitude to North Korea read back to the normal as a period of frosty relations was an aberration China those decision-makers at the common public despise more scary Cheney's cannot stand its ideology as they see them probably more hostile then area citizens of any other country senior scary now the less it's irrelevant as the policy especially the policy of the great powers is not driven by emotions and is seldom driven by the ideology it's an all good Machiavellian Walt of calculations and from the changes . of view you clear but stable must carry which creates a buffer zone is a lesser evil as then collapsing or unstable more scary is therefore China does not want success of North Korean nuclear program but they are not going to exercise too much pressure on los que dia scenes this pressure is likely to basically back five they don't want to take measures which might put nor scary instability internal domestic stability of the threat and no other measure know as a set of measures is likely to succeed if you want to influence the sketti you have to heat it hard but channa doesn't want to hit not scary heart because if that massive crisis is going to erupt in the Korean Peninsula shiny will suffer more than any other company added you'll be blamed as a matter of fact for everything if they don't take refugees available blade if they take refugees but dog tease them and the proper ways if you'll be played.
If they treat them and probably but something else goes from the also will be blamed.
Plus the threat of proliferation and above all the threat of an emergency for unified and generally primerica undemocratic and nationalistic government on the Korean Peninsula so changes are not happy about it and after few years regulations United States we are not that good but not disastrously bet the get toyed with the idea of you know pushing more and more scarier heart but now they have changed their mind and they can basically say that it happened around say august-september 2015 i would probably speculate that it was a decision made on the highest level definitely in presence of common teaching people about at any rate what you have mentioned this frosty relations are over for every vile I thought their the nuclear tests are would probably change the situation but my trip to channel immediately after the nuclear test and my talk to the Chinese demonstrated clearly no it's not the case of course channel probably walked almost definitely award for a new set of tough sanctions and the UN Security Council wrote but at the same time the Chinese diplomats will be working very hard to water it done to make sure that the toughness of you remain symbolical that the you set of sanctions will be tougher than earlier said but just just alittle because they don't want to put North Korea under much pressure they need a stable and divided Korean Peninsula is the ideal wall china would probably like to see a stable divided at No.
Nuclear carried peninsula but when it comes to the nuclear issue.
Jenna can make compromise last fall you publish an opinion piece on Algiers website entitled if China had to choose it would be South Korea do you feel that since China is now communists in name only so to speak.
North Korea has become really more of a liability beyond its job political interest not anymore do you remember when I rodas piece I wrote it before this dramatic reversal of the Chinese policy in basically say September last IAM exams was true for every vile aura . from safe februari 2013 to say always to September 2015 10 healthy yes indeed appear as if China was going to jeopardize not scarier and try to so basically put more attention to the south and get South Korea into the Chinese fear of influence but things changed and things change largely because of the increasing confrontation of the United States and the crisis in the South China Sea Cheney's now and the belief that at the end of the day sounds scary for the time being is an alive the United States or China it's vital that some South Korea is likely to accept not certain but likely to accept their ath w/a d system and of course it's important it's not scary as soon as the South Korea has large American military presence so now when relations with the united states are so tense in the end of the day.
China is not going to make serious concessions to sound scary here on the north korean issue of course it doesn't cancel the basic fact China tends to see the entire East Asia as a former Cena Central Ward as it's legal lawful sphere of influence.
Well pretty much like people in the United States Cisse Central America and they're not going to be happy about.
Any as a forces areas a country to be present there any more than Americans were happy about say Soviet influence in Cuba in the sixties seventies so the a likely to gradually continues their policy aimed at if possible including the entire Korean Peninsula into the Chinese feel feels however for the time being under the new policies which are still well you might be revised of course but I don't see any see the signs of that china is actually back to its attitude is a few much more sympathy towards sounds scary of the ideological personal level but its strategy which metis not emotions not ideological synthesis and strategy tells clearly support North Korea it is prevent a masive crisis in North Korea it does save changes interest when dealing with China does North Korea and especially Kim Jong earn have any real power well address as long as he stays in control of his country China faces less trouble in nurse's station he cannot press chain by Jenna has interest in maintaining his country in supporting his conscious existence and this is enough and of course Jon and like his father and like his grandfather is not going to ball to the pressure of the great powers be chana russia united states named so when Chinese demand something promising some economic rewards he is quite likely to say no if he believes that the Chinese idea is somehow dangerous for him stay in power stain control and chana can do pretty much nothing about it.
So this is the situation this is the situation and basically talking about the United States he usually especially his faster are used to apply the same policy where they needed something from the United states are they began to build up pressure our nuclear tests medical statements missile launches to create a sense of the crisis and then they successfully demanded to be paid for the villains to solve the crisis themselves created as if your place this policy did walk occasionally it seems it's not walking anymore because the major attitude in the United States is well let's ignore them the basic approach is that North Korea does not considered any significant problem as long as they don't have delivery system they does not even constitute a serious military threat so it should be not so right now this all takes don't walk but but at the same time at the same time german is not going to accept proposals from channel United States eve this proposals no matter how inefficient economically this proposals are somehow dangerous for his hour for the Asian stability in our prior interview you mentioned that Kim Jong Il's goal in life was to die before the end of his regime and he succeeded does health play also a big part in kim jong earns life specifically the media keep reporting that is overweight that it drinks and smokes too much that he has problems with his leg maybe even kout should we dismiss all this as tabloid journalism or is there more to this and especially make this even be politically relevant we don't know anything about his files but as quickly as that he see if you're overweight and he is getting way to his amazing speed getting fretted fettered fret which is I would say not good second it's quite clear that he's a heavy smoker and everything else is probably speculations and of course Eve came from and drops debt or if he is basically in a seriously bad conditions it will have tremendous political.
Consequences for the country where essentially everything depends so much on just one feels so i would say that well he is probably not very healthy for his age but he's in the age when people tend to be healthy as a matter of fact so to be unhealthy for somebody early thirties is not that bad and then he is too important personally us to ignore his health issues as politically irrelevant.
Nonetheless they're reliable information about his curls are difficult to get earlier you mentioned that as a leader he was brutal.
We've had discussions of purges some that were revealed to be true such as jong-seong tech is on call but also some that we're less reliable that such as his girlfriend that eventually reappear a few months later when we purchased so predominant in his early career partially because of his personal character would say and partially because he's young and wants to show that he is somebody to be taken seriously in spite of his h in spite of his looks.
She's should be taken seriously he should be fed and he wants to basically dealing with this message to everybody who matters so it's a policy of you know a young leader strangely unbelievably young by the North scale standards who has to manage people people who can easily be his father so even grant for us so in order to be taking seriously he tends to be very impressive he just basically wants to be here and it makes sense it makes sense and of course his personal character is also important the common theory is that those purchases were there to consolidate his power and eliminate those who might have opposed them.
Do you agree and what are the cleanse of factions are not in control in Pyongyang well its applications i hate because there is no shortage in supply of people who are willing to talk about clans and groups you know the attack black rods the pollies the military I don't buy groups exist but they know very little.
Essentially we know nothing about the existence of these groups about the membership about everything as their top North Korean leadership is essentially a black box we don't know what's going inside some people pretend they do but at very very skeptical maybe just maybe some intelligence services have been at rated the inner circle but they are not going to share their discoveries is a common public and whence a journalist speculate about some this missiles and purges and everything and they mention all this groups and clans and clicks which allegedly exist in Pyongyang and well some of them might exist indeed and some of this room us might be indeed correct but it's virtually impossible to distinguish to discriminate between fantasies and the real friends so personally when people are talking about class everything I simply don't join you wrote that their constant rivalries between different branches of the North Korean government could you tell us more other specific rivalries are especially famous well talking about major rival is we can mention of course the party and the military it's sort of clearly distinguishable google groups and it's quite clear that recently German is favoring the party president the military it's clear and other things if you look at how business is done in Los career you will be surprised how significant it there.
North Korean bureaucracies in many cases you have little or no interaction between different government.
Agencies which is another North Korean problem and it's a problem of the forums who do business career because even if you need to create some do with somebody as soon as this person is maybe even promoted not necessarily move promoted and most to another position you have to negotiate everything in you and sometimes to negotiate some teal is a particular part of the government and then another part of the government is not happy and there is a great deal of some kind of institutional rivalry and conflicts you have no clue about and what you end of this your business project being made it installed or ruined the usual situations and fortunately how much power does kim jong and actually have today and while he may be his father's son and his grandfather's grandson many commentators so his lack of political experience and young age as a handicap that could threaten his grip on power from the start.
It's a type of equation I cannot answer why now you know he's not calling me every morning complaining about unruly general Sun to you know all this ministers who say yes Marshall and do everything their way that he doesn't complain to me maybe he complains to his wife i know not not me about be more serious actually all this time of ideas who is in control difficult to see but what I see I see a young leader who is changing top military commanders with unprecedented frequency i see that the average i was a political life expectancy for defence ministry something like seven or eight months he's changing Minister every seven or eight months of their top generals of somewhat lesser eggs are also changed very frequently is it an indication that he's not in control of the military I don't think so because you don't play say you gave his generals or what is more interesting the strange games promotion and emotion when the same person while keeping the same official position is sometimes promoted and then demoted his foresee four-star general that Vice Marshall and suddenly three-star generals and four-star general ed.
If you are afraid of the military you don't play such games is this people because they take such things deadly seas or if you look at the foreign policies that I have been some general forces there have been some strange cases which can be explained only by popularity is peculiar features of kim jones biography like his meetings is dennis rodman well Americans probably tend to believe that everybody is that will case about their basketball knows it not know nobody outside the United States care about american basketball and Dennis Rodman was a complete unknown is scary.
The only person who has probably helped his name it was they like him was of course kitchen because you have to basically be a foreign teenager to the others named the growing and english-speaking forum environment and so the decision to invite a person was made clearly bike engine you can see it was a small decision well sort of but not so because it was very prominent and slightly damaging to the image of the North Korean top leaders but what about mushy project maciek ski resort they invested so much money in again making skills or sin la study it doesn't look like a kind of you nor reasonable policy and the best explanation for such strange twist is that the decision was made by somebody who spent too much time in system so looking at this indirect evidence i would say that Kim jong-un is probably much in control and once again we don't know it might take decades before we will more with any certainty how decisions are made and pinion in our previous interview you mentioned that Kim jong-il was and I quote the closet liberal do you think that his son follows the same path definitely not Kim jong-il was afraid to touch the economy but when it came to the political Sakai of political life he was indeed much more liberal than returned to believe there was a significant decrease in the mass of the system under community are he basically turned blind eye to a massive migration to and from chain he essentially did not really seriously try to close the country for the for information.
German is different we don't have yet statistics about the size of the prison camps it's what we don't know whether prison camps increased or decreased under kitchen but something tells me that there was a relatively small increase in the prison population mostly because so many people have been arrested.
Most of these people are not comments most of these people are elite we should never forget about it.
Nonetheless well i would expect some increase then they have this measures against information the information much more control of the border alpha sentences to the attempted defectors it terms to punish people who are coping producing somehow disseminating the foreign videos it's also quite new.
So if you look at communis policy it seems to be significantly more impressive and polish of his father probably even more impressive and policy of his grandfather so he's no closet liberal he's quite trigger-happy he's quite willing to use violence keys quite willing to kill people he doesn't like most recently north Korea has made news with yet another test of nuclear bomb an alleged hydrogen pump do you see that aimed at domestic audiences or rather at foreign audiences domestic audiences definitely because foreign audiences was bound to Lord in no time that it was a lie that it was not the hydrogen more thermal nuclear device for the domestic audience is important because we have the 7th congress coming seven party congress is scheduled to meet in spring may this year and this type of gathering they have not had for 36 years hence the only they need something to present he has to show some success what can he do.
Yet another normal regular nuclear test well he can but it has kept in three times before to claim that North Korea has success for the large satellite well has been before to three times only advance it was really successful but success in other cases was claimed anyway so the center when you create devices a good idea.
It sounds like a major advancement of the nuclear missile program it sounds sufficiently terrifying people know that it's difficult to do so he made the claim and it's not really important that pretty much almost Koreans will soon the divestment analysts and engineers did not agree first of all and above all they are not necessarily leading to believe the form reports such issue because there's you that the foreign reports basically you know.
Sensatori distorted in order to play down the greatness of their country it's a very common view in North Korea so even if they learn about this skeptical restaurant reports it will not change their mind completely and many of them will be probably still inclined to believe there's a new leader has made a major another major breakthrough in the military difference industry so this was the goal he now he has something to boast about the coming by the Congress to look that he has made something you know prepared something for the Congress and did it himself not to just you know to call heritage of his father or grandfather North Korea's nuclear program is quite a long history was there ever transferred to change when Kim jong-un came to power actually rather see it as an essential part of north korea's his own data and regardless of who's in power or how much of the country's want North Korea to change.
It's there to stay i believe is there to stay because look at the illogical there was only one strong man in the recent history who agreed to surrender nuclear violence in exchange for promise to communicate.
His name was Kardashian everybody remembers how he died there was some damn of Iraq accused of secretly producing weapons of mass destruction he didn't do it as you know know that he was overthrown anyway and as North Korean officials always eager to mind he was overthrown exactly because he had no nuclear weapons the North Korea logic gates had some really had nuclear weapons he would be alive and power same is applicable to cut so finally they saw what happened to Ukraine which according to 1994 budapest protocol where Russia and some other countries guaranteed Ukrainian territorial integrity in exchange for his willingness to surrender nuclear weapons.
Well you know what happened to the territorial integrity of Ukraine so all things combined can be seen as one universal lesson in the modern world you are not going to be rewarded for your willingness to surrounding use much more likely you are going to be punished with it it doesn't matter as a kitchen and whoever isn't control these people like to have economic growth and collaboration but is essentially secondary go there major goals political survival and as they have learned from the recent history nuclear weapons is the best way to get ideas such survival so far we spoke a lot about the regime opinion but what about the ordinary citizens of North Korea did the majority of them to your knowledge experience any significant change in their life since Kim jong-un came to power i would say their life has improved significantly not dramatically but significantly very some malnutrition especially in the countryside but nobody now faces a dealer discs of styling to this there is a large number of the new consumption goods usually imported from chain even the refrigerator's at home I'm not seen as a real luxury item anymore.
There is a great deal of cell phones and all good land line forms are probably in a majority of the urban houses it began to heaven under Kim journal by the changes accelerated under his son people who are employed is a private economy and this is very large part probably majority of population feel much more secure about the employment because massive campaigns against private enterprises and now a thing of the past so we have more car they have more entertainment.
Yes you face greater risks if you try to cross some kind of red line designed by the government likes a fortune foreign movies your face greater least a few years ago but as a vice life has become slightly more secure and obviously more effort and it's not ill related to Pyongyang alarm same changes you can see in the countryside to as you say North Korea is changing for better or worse is the public image of the country lagging behind and what you see the biggest misperceptions about north korea since controlling came to power as there are two major deception sales same one is quite old and that is less the old one is that North Korea is an irrational medical state who just enjoys making nuclear weapons and can at any moment attack all its neighbors because you know it's run by a crazy Manny Manny ack who has it his disposal hearts of Robert like you was ready to die according to his father's it's rubbish much of any function a real live north korea is a highly rational state their masters of the political survival they're brilliant diplomats who are so basically making impossible really impossible things to happen they stay in power in spite of all programs they have outlived nearly all other communist nations and this is a major achievement.
The second kind of.
Misperceptions a deal for starving North Korea you know so many people will tell you as a mentor fed but North Koreans are static and say because there aren't there was a massive starvation 15 years ago a bit more but right now as they have set all them on nutrition for many people it's not known or basically create some kind of you know and he's ready long that North Korean economy is growing the North Korean living standards employee in many cases it's sort of this means by their remarks that it's must be happening only kill no it's not only here but it goes against the common assumption to conclude in your opinion has the life expectancy of North Korea as we know it gotten longer or shorter under Kim jong-un ATP is that he is conducting a century and dangerous surgery he is trying to change the country in reducing gradual and mild reforms on the assumption that the reforms will probably generate sustainable economic growth so he will make his country into a minor version of chain in due time and he might succeed but at the same time at the same time such reforms a very skinny as a decision to do reforms actually significant increase the probability of room collapse in the relatively near future five to ten years at the same time if he survives of this crisis this kind of transition . it's quite possible that he will stay in power for decades or basically like say in China in Vietnam where the Communist Party has been in control understand you trim kind of a century capitalist market economy valuation for say 35 years and likely to remain in control quite long so it's more complicated his policy of his father continued I would say 15 to 20 years and then probably collapse whiskey now we cannot give such a simplistic and so on one hand.
There is a probability that badly executed reforms will essentially speed up the disintegration of the system it's possible.
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